What to take into your next appraisal
- Keep sales booking dates separate from invoicing and collection dates.
- A handover delay can defer a large final payment even when construction spend is almost complete.
- Model cancellation and refunds through the unit ledger, not through an unexplained revenue haircut.
Read the plan as a set of triggers
For each unit, identify the signed price, initial payment, later due dates, construction-linked milestones and handover amount. Where a payment depends on certified progress, the construction programme drives its date. A calendar instalment can behave differently when the programme slips. Record the contractual answer rather than applying one rule across all sales.
DLD project-registration requirements establish a local process for registered off-plan development. The marketing brochure alone is insufficient evidence for collection or escrow-release assumptions. Keep the signed agreement, account requirements and receivables ledger attached to the model inputs.
Build a cohort schedule
Group units only when price, booking month and payment terms are equivalent. A cohort row needs units, net price, booked value and a vector of due percentages. The percentages should sum to 100% before financing or incentives. Allocate receipts to months using a separate collection-lag assumption.
Track overdue balances by due month. Moving cash forward does not cancel the receivable, while reducing price does not necessarily change an already issued invoice. Show amendments and collections independently so the forecast can reconcile to actual customer records.
Worked example: an 80/20 plan
Assume ten apartments sell at AED 1m each. Their fictional agreement requires 20% at booking, 60% over construction and 20% at handover. Five construction instalments of 12% are due. Ignore tax and fees to isolate payment timing.
The final AED 2m is 20% of project contracted revenue. A three-month handover delay moves that receipt three months, while the preceding AED 8m remains at its original dates in this specific example. Whether that money funds construction still depends on restriction and release conditions.
| Trigger | Per unit | Ten-unit cohort |
|---|---|---|
| Booking, 20% | AED 200,000 | AED 2,000,000 |
| Each of five instalments, 12% | AED 120,000 | AED 1,200,000 |
| Handover, 20% | AED 200,000 | AED 2,000,000 |
| Total | AED 1,000,000 | AED 10,000,000 |
Separate collection risk from programme risk
Suppose 10% of the handover amount is collected two months after its due date. Cash at the handover date is AED 1.8m and the overdue receivable is AED 0.2m. If handover itself moves three months, apply the collection lag after that revised milestone. Do not put the AED 0.2m into both an overdue row and a cancellation loss.
For cancellation, reverse the relevant contracted balance, model refunds under the actual agreement and applicable requirements, return the unit to available inventory and schedule any resale. Obtain project-specific advice before assuming the developer can retain a particular deposit.
Compare plans on funding as well as sales
A more back-ended plan may support a higher price while increasing peak equity and exposure to handover delay. Compare the present value of receipts, maximum cash deficit, debt availability and unsold stock under the same construction programme. The extra price should be evaluated against those additional funding costs.
Report collected, due, overdue, restricted and released balances together. That makes a favourable sales dashboard compatible with an honest cash forecast.
Sources and further reading
- Register Project Dubai Land Department
- Valuation of development property RICS
Published by Feasly. How we prepare our guides. Suggest a correction.
